Commerce, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

650
FXUS66 KLOX 171445
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
745 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...17/728 AM.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to
continue today with areas of low clouds and fog clearing by
afternoon. Gusty winds are expected at times across the mountains
and deserts. Hazardous seas will affect the coastal waters through
at least tonight. Warmer temperatures are expected this coming
week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...17/744 AM.

***UPDATE***

Gusty northwest to north winds across the mountains, Antelope
Valley and southwest Santa Barbara County peaked last night and
early this morning and are expected to weaken today but remain
gusty at times. The current slate of high wind warnings will end
at 9am but based on the latest hi res models a low end wind
advisory may be needed for southwest Santa Barbara County this
evening due to lingering Sundowners there.

Otherwise, the marine layer this morning was mostly confined to LA
County and northern Santa Barbara County and should clear
off in most areas by noon. Gradients are starting to trend
offshore but warming will mostly have to wait until Monday when a
low grade Santa Ana wind event develops.

***From Previous Discussion***

As is usually the case with an inside slider`s passage a Santa
Ana Wind event will set up in its wake. While the actual offshore
pressure on Monday will not be too strong the trend from 9mb
onshore at 00Z Mon to -2mb at 12Z is so strong that is will likely
generate a decent offshore wind field. There is some upper
support as well and there is about a 40 percent chc that the wind
speeds will reach advisory levels in the morning. The offshore
push should eliminate the marine layer clouds everywhere save for
the Long Beach area. The offshore push will bring 3 to 6 locally 8
degrees of warming to most areas.

Weaker offshore flow will bring some non advisory canyon winds to
the area Tuesday morning. Low clouds, if any, will again be
confined to the LGB area. Rising hgts, the lack of cool air from
the interior and continued offshore flow will bring 1 to 3 degrees
of warming to the csts, 3 to 5 degrees over the vlys and 4 to 8
degrees for the mtns and far interior. Max temps Tuesday will
mostly be 4 to 8 degrees above normal with 70s and a few lower 80s
across the csts and 80s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...17/220 AM.

One last day of weak offshore and minimal marine layer clouds will
make Wednesday the warmest day of the week. Look for 1 to 3
degrees of warming with some vly max temps approaching 90.

Look for a benign upper level pattern to return Thursday and
continue through Saturday. At the same time onshore flow will
increase some each day. This will reinvigorate the marine layer
stratus and most csts and some vlys will wake up to clouds each
morning. Winds will not be an issue. Max temps will fall 3 to 6
degrees across the csts/vlys on Thursday. All areas will see 3 to
4 degrees of cooling Friday. Saturday`s cooling of 1 to 2 degrees
will bring max temps down into the upper 60s through the upper 70s
across the csts and vlys.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0938Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4900 ft with a temperature of 12 C.

Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBA with a 30 percent chc of MVFR
cigs 10Z-18Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 30 percent
chc of no low clouds.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. VFR conds could
arrive +/- 90 minutes from forecast time.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive anytime
between 17Z and 19Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8kt east wind
component 12Z-16Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive anytime
between 1630Z and 1830Z.

&&

.MARINE...17/219 AM.

Dangerous sea conditions will continue through early this evening.
These conditions could capsize or damage small and large vessels.
Mariners should adjust plans NOW to remain in safe harbor.

GALE WARNINGS are in effect for the inner waters along the
Central Coast, all the outer waters, and the Santa Barbara Channel
this weekend. Please refer to MWWLOX for further details.

For the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas
Island, high confidence forecast. Widespread, high-end, STRONG
GALES will continue through Sunday. Local gusts may reach STORM
FORCE through mid morning. The Gale Force winds will diminish
today, then Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will continue into
late Monday night, with a 20% chance of lingering through Tuesday.
As for seas, SCA level seas are nearing their peak (10-20 feet)
tonight. Seas should decrease significantly this evening as winds
diminish and will continue to fall Monday and Monday night.

For the inner waters along the Central Coast, high-end, STRONG
GALE FORCE level winds are expected through this evening, with a
lull in gale force winds in the morning. Winds will then drop
below Gale force and even SCA levels overnight. As for seas, SCA
level seas will continue through the weekend and could linger into
Monday afternoon or early evening.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, GALE WARNING
remains in effect for the Santa Barbara Channel through this
evening with a slight lull in the winds this morning. These winds
will be strongest across western and southern portions of the
channel in and around the Channel Islands. Expect steep, large
seas around 5 to 8 feet.

For the southern inner waters adjacent to the L.A. Coast, SCA
conditions are expected through mid morning. Highest seas and
strongest winds expected across western portion. Localized GALE
Force wind gusts are possible Sunday evening/night near Anacapa
Island.

&&

.BEACHES...16/1052 PM.

A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high
evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal
flooding possible this weekend. High Surf advisories and Beach
Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline.
Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area.

In general, hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are
expected with strong rip currents. Minor beach erosion and
minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly during the evening
high tides.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this
      morning for zones 349-351>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for
      zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 PM PDT this
      evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 11 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Black
BEACHES...Phillips/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox